Monday, July 6, 2009

Retail

You know it and I know it although the government seems to think otherwise. Consumers are not buying the same amount of crap they used to buy. And then comes Joltin' Joe Biden with another of his famous foot in mouth but true statements - "we misread the economy."

Sounds like Roger Clemens misremembering.

OK, it was a mistake and one made by optimists. I'd rather have optimists in charge (any party) but couch it a little, won't you?

In today's column, I made special note that the market knew this weeks before Joe admitted it (the specific Biden quote was left on the cutting room floor). It is amazing how the stock market can see into the future as retail stocks were already showing problems weeks ago.

When I say the market knew I mean that it knew something was wrong. There is no way it can know specifically what that something was so don't accuse me of fortune telling.

But why? How?

The answer is that somebody always knows something or thinks they know something. They act (by selling retail stocks, in this case) and the next guy sees that. And so on and so on. Start with enough smarty pantses and you can see how supply and demand for retail stocks can drive prices lower BEFORE any news is disseminated to the masses.

Although many retail stocks reversed course today to close higher (check out Kohl's - KSS) the damage is done. The Dow was up because some analyst (you know, the ones that got you out of the market in October 2007 - lol) removed his sell rating on American Express.

It is still a cow chip index.

2 comments:

Artem Dmytrenko said...

your explanation looks like from EMH "price know everything". but we can explain it another way... even contrarian way.. like you.. heh..interesting to evaluate influence of insider information on market

Quick Takes Pro said...

That is not what I am saying. The market is not efficient as information does not propagate through the market at the same rate and force. Some people absorb the information differently and act accordingly.

Yes, I believe it is all in the price but what the "it" is does not match what EMH assumes. EMH assumes everyone knows everything at the same time.