Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Goldman Disappoints

Disappoints? As one news report said, "they knocked the cover off the ball." They even beat the so-called "influential analyst" target earnings number by a lot and she was a huge number over consensus. Yet Goldman Sachs open lower Tuesday (even though it is slightly in the green at the time of this post).

As I wrote yesterday, they had to crush the whisper number and apparently they did not. It is early but seeing such a whoop it up analyst upgrade after a 150% rally fits right in with a top. But again, it is early. Let's see where Goldman ends the week.

Here is another headline from this morning: Stocks stumble out of the gate, as data on PPI and retail sales cloud any enthusiasm over J&J and Goldman Sachs results.

I guess they had to blame something. How about buy the rumor, sell the news on Goldman? How about retail sales were indeed the best in five months but it was six months of garbage. Sorry for digressing into the fundamentals on the last one. Did you see the sub-headline? Core sales down for fourth straight month.

Journalists. Give them a break because they have to earn a living.


Amalan said...

I've been impressed with Meredith W's low profile on TV (compared to the other talking heads) and getting it more right than wrong in the past - I guess we'll know how she made out with the Goldman call in the fullness of time.

Another person who has intrigued me of late is Hilary Kramer who is a Street Critique on NBR/Public Broadcasting. In early 2008 she said the market won't bottom until Nov 2008, and given that the call was made so early in the year, I was surprised when in fact the market made the first "bottom" in Nov 08. Recently, when SP500 hit 930 or so, she said the rise is over and the decline would begin. I wonder if she is a technician, though she never claimed to be one and appears to talk like a Fundamental Analyst on TV.

Michael Kahn said...

Amalan said "I wonder if she is a technician"

I say that more people you know are closet technicians but won't admit it. They don't want to deal with translating tech-speak into English so they claim not to look at it.

FWIW, I wrote in Barron's Online on April 16, 2008 that November looked like a potential bottom. If you can get behind the pay site: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120829364826017219.html

Ramu said...

Michael, any insights into today's huge rally?

Paul O'Cuana said...

It appears that the bears got ahead of themselves this week.
The Bullish Ratio dropped from 58.5 to 50.0 this week. That's a big change for one week and will take some time to digest.

Paul O'Cuana

Michael Kahn said...


I think paulocuna nailed it - the bulls got too juiced. Did you notice the VIX was up today as the market soared? To me, they were scarfing up calls and a fever pitch.