I fully expected both belly and live hog futures to skyrocket as the demand from Washington to feed a pork starved system exploded. It was nice being a superpower during my entire lifetime to date.
Cynical? Yeah, a little. And I am 100% behind the President but when he says the bill is imperfect I agree.
I have heard all sorts of ways to jump start the economy including taking the TARP money and distributing it to every adult man and woman citizen. It would come out to several thousand apiece and I know that would ease my pain. Imagine how that would feel to someone without a job.
My thought was to create the Bank of the USA and lend directly to homebuyers and businesses to keep capital flowing. Let the stupid banks and brokers that poisoned us go under and all of their innocent employees can work for the BofUSA. Guess who would have direct control for executive salaries that way? And to get good managers give them options in the new companey
And when all is well, take the bank public and sell all government shares. If successful, the managers would make a killing.
Just a thought. Why do we continue to prop up failed institutions buy funding failed managers?
Capitalism, wherefore art thou?
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Monday, February 9, 2009
Bonds Again
I had a quick email discussion with one of my newsletter subscribers about treasury bonds. It's no secret that there was a flight to quality rush not unlike the 49ers of yore - and I don't mean the NFL doormats. But now, that rush is unwinding with more room to fall (see chart).
The subscriber asked why I have not put on a position shorting this market since the initial short that captured the first leg down. Well, I was asleep at the switch as the second leg down began. But now, this thing is oversold and showing some technical reasons not to be the last one invited to the shorting party.
Check out 9-day RSI (even though this is an ETF, I use the 9-day for bonds). Oversold with possible divergence. A 50% retrace from the major 2007 low is not far away and short-term support is at hand from the November gap.
It's the difference between being right and losing money anyway.
And its another reason why I say the financial markets are definitely healing vs. waiting for the next shoe to drop. Read my Barron's Online Feb 4 column if you have not seen it yet.
The subscriber asked why I have not put on a position shorting this market since the initial short that captured the first leg down. Well, I was asleep at the switch as the second leg down began. But now, this thing is oversold and showing some technical reasons not to be the last one invited to the shorting party.Check out 9-day RSI (even though this is an ETF, I use the 9-day for bonds). Oversold with possible divergence. A 50% retrace from the major 2007 low is not far away and short-term support is at hand from the November gap.
It's the difference between being right and losing money anyway.
And its another reason why I say the financial markets are definitely healing vs. waiting for the next shoe to drop. Read my Barron's Online Feb 4 column if you have not seen it yet.
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