I just had to get that title up there. There has been so much written on this obscure indicator that I have to comment - once I figure out its subtleties.
Also, the press and chat room are jumping all over its bullish signal. I am wondering about a contrarian spin.
More when I finish work on my paying job.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Monday, June 1, 2009
Even today, still a bear
Still a bear? After a breakout? Or better yet, calling it a breakout means I've capitulated to the rally.
Tricky call. More likely it is another short-term event that we have to take one at a time.
Remember when the market broke 875? It went up but not by much. May was essentially flat after the initial rally.
And now it breaks the next range at 930. I can see another 4-7% rally (to 982 - 1007) but I just cannot see this as a bull market that will last. Take two clunkers out of the Dow and of course everyone is happy. They will put in two stocks that have a chance to make some gains.
So, we take it range at a time. I'll keep my bearish opinion while I play the long side. It is the difference between what you think - and everyone is free to think whatever they want - and what you do. Your bank account does not care what you think.
Tricky call. More likely it is another short-term event that we have to take one at a time.
Remember when the market broke 875? It went up but not by much. May was essentially flat after the initial rally.
And now it breaks the next range at 930. I can see another 4-7% rally (to 982 - 1007) but I just cannot see this as a bull market that will last. Take two clunkers out of the Dow and of course everyone is happy. They will put in two stocks that have a chance to make some gains.
So, we take it range at a time. I'll keep my bearish opinion while I play the long side. It is the difference between what you think - and everyone is free to think whatever they want - and what you do. Your bank account does not care what you think.
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