The Boiling Frog

From Wikipedia (I love that site):

The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to significant changes that occur gradually. 

Let's not get hung up on facts as Wiki continues: According to contemporary biologists the premise of the story is not literally true.

But I certainly feel like I am sitting in some Farberware. It has been eight trading days since this rally began and the higher it goes the worse volume looks. I whined about this in Tuesday's blog. I whined about it in my column. And I whined about it in Quick Takes Pro.

What's the story Jerry? Is the market going up because the bears are down at the Jersey Shore and not adding any selling pressure into the mix?  Or that everyone who does not have to be at their desk is gone leaving trading to the whimsy of rookie traders who buy their odd lots on any decent news story?

Sounds right to me. But the bottom line is that the market is going up and I am losing money. Not too much, mind you, as I did have some long positions over the past few days. But the egg on my face is thick.

Is the water still heating up? Yes. 

Is it going to get hot enough to kill me? That remains to be seen.

Volume

All last year, when we all, your truly included, pined away about low volume, we never excused a pre-holiday session for its low volume. It did not matter if it was the day before Memorial Day or erev Christmas, low volume was factored into the technicals just as it is on any trading day.

So why are pundits dismissing last week's low volume as not so meaningful? 

What would Wyckoff say? That is an awful lot of price movement on very little money changing hands. Not exactly effort and result in balance.

As I wrote in today's Barron's Online column, "Put them (weak technicals) all together and mix with relief that there was positive movement in the Greek debt crisis. Garnish with the relative illiquidity of a preholiday market and you get a deceptively strong rally."