Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Tech was not the driver

Who read the market headlines after the close today? "The market bounced back led by tech."  Yahoo! I mean GoogleBing! As long as I am digressing, does anyone remember HotBot, Excite and Lycos? They still exist. So does Altavista but it is now only a facade for Yahoo.

Anyway, the market was led by tech, they say. How does this little list of ETFs look to you?


The tech ETF was number five on this list, barely beating the SPY itself. Retail was the leader followed by biotech and consumer staples. Housing was just a tad better than tech.

Listen up people, do your own fact checking. You are not going to get that from the media. Believe me, I know as I am on so many deadlines each week that it is very tempting to break out the Hershey's (OK, bad example. There really is no household name brand for fudge).
  • Trust but verify
  • All the news that fits, we print
  • More people get their news from the Daily Show.....than probably should

Monday, February 4, 2013

Right on Schedule

In case you've been wondering where I have been or even if I am still on the planet, you can stop. I just had nothing to say.

So here is today's thought - retail is coming back into the market just in time for the top. No, I am not going to call a top here although it is tempting. There is no limit to how far a market can go against what it "should" be doing.

Just a spoonful of QE makes the economy look bright,
the economy look bright,
the economy look briiiiiight
- (Julie Andrews still looks and sounds good at age 77).

But here is some of the stuff happening right now:
  • Money is pouring into money markets thanks to this year's higher taxes pushing all sorts of payments and dividends into last year. Sorry, Al Gore, you were too slow with Al J.
  • Money is pouring into junk bonds
  • The VIX is stupid low
  • Sentiment surveys are at bullish extremes
  • Financial news shows are focusing on the little guy getting back into the market
Right on schedule. After a four-year run from the financial crisis low and after many stock indices are at new all-time highs, the individual investor is finally thinking about buying stocks. You know what that means.