Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Agree to Disagree

Never before have I seen so many polar opposite forecasts as I am seeing now. I agree with people with whom I never agree (or respect, in some cases) and I disagree with people with whom I usually agree (and respect a lot). But then again, not all of them on both sides.

Some say healthcare is the way to go yet I panned hospitals a few weeks ago.

Some say tech will carry the bull but I panned it a few weeks ago.

Some say bear market to new uncharted (at least not in the past 50 years) territory and others say a new major bull market is underway.

The VIX at 27 is a good thing while some say it is not good at all.

Some say sell in May while others look for the summer rally

Some say inflation while others say deflation (funny, nobody talks about benign ole' disinflation).

Some say the consumer is coming back and others think he/she is still scared poop-less.

Some say the government is fixing things while other say they are making it worse.

You say tomato, someone else says tomatoe. You can keep your to-mah-to.

What the deal? Who knows? Nobody knows but that is no excuse for investment paralysis. I called it "retreating into an investment cocoon" on another website. Do your homework, follow some respected analyst's analysis (but make your own conclusions) and then control risk.

As was mentioned in a previous post, it really is all about money management - make your bed and lie in it and control the heck out of risk. A good trader can make money no matter what portfolio he is given because he will cut the crap out right away and let the correct decisions ride. Trite but true.

Steve Nison, aka Mr. Candlesticks, likes to push a trading triad - Eastern Technicals, Western Technicals and Money Management. Everyone knows how to buy but few really master the art of selling.


Mikey said...

Best (most helpful) comment I've read this week talks of waiting to discover the "new normal" ...

Mikey said...

Best (most helpful) comment I've read this week talks of waiting to discover the "new normal" ...

Artem Dmytrenko said...

important to find predominating bias and value it... heh