Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Poll results

Well, it was a tiny poll but here are the results. It is too hard to read the blogger display to the right.

11% - like it was in July, ready to rock
38% - just relieving oversold
50% - not going anywhere soon

Toss in the rounding error and we can see the majority of readers with an opinion think the market is just in chop city for the near-term. And why not? Interest rates are being held low, the economy is seemingly rebounding sans jobs but inflation is peeking through. Consumers are not confident any more and even HR Block took a hit as more people are doing their own taxes to save money (yuck!).

Don't take this as a contrarian indicator. For starters, there is no track record. Next, the sample size is tiny and readers of a technical analysis blog are likely a bit more sophisticated than the average investor. Not because of me but for the topic.

Anyway, I find it interesting that the analysts and economists are bullish yet only a fraction of readers agree.


Paul O'Cuana said...

from today's WSJ:

"U.S. sales of new homes fell 11.2% in January, setting a record low and erasing all gains in the market for new homes during the past year."

"U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942..."

Combine this with yesterday's dismal consumer confidence report and I would have to say we're on the next leg down in the economy.
What does a double dip look like on the charts?

Paul O'Cuana

Michael Kahn said...

Before agreeing with you, let me scold you first. The market will do what the market will do despite, not because of, the fundamentals. This is why I am not going 200% short now or ever!