Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Yeah, its real

I've been getting a lot of email asking if this is the "big one," as in down we go to the March low or below (do you like the rhyme?). Well, that is a bit premature (and I don't think we see a new low) but it sure does look a lot like January.

The difference is that sentiment was rather frothy despite what some of the surveys might say. Every bit of news coming out told us the economy was getting better and the stock market reacted like it was a total surprise.

I'll be selling the back and fill. I already have enough cash to be protected.


Guy M. Lerner said...

Saw your article in Barron's on the retail sector

As usual your "old school" TA has left you with the "I'm not sures" and "what ifs"; as usual your "old school" TA has you wondering does this stuff work...

For superior analysis -trust me on this - your readers and you should check these two articles out on the retail sector: article 1 and article 2.

Now I don't have an axe to grind with Mr. Kahn as I don't know him; but I do have an axe to grind with his this type of axiomatic analysis. I wonder if you trade in your fund using these techniques???

Will said...

Forecasting is always probabilistic. If you think otherwise you haven't been doing it that long.

Michael Kahn said...

If you think I don't deal in probabilities then you have not been reading me since I started in 1986.

Can we get off bashing me for having an opinion?

Oh, and our fund in is the top 5 in our category.

Will said...

Mike, just to clarify I my comment was addressed to Guy. Personally I think it's pretty courageous to really stick your neck out there when virtually everyone is a raging bull.

Michael Kahn said...

My apologies. You have been a supporter for quite a while.

Seriously, anyone writing for any media is subject to harsh criticism and my own record is not clean during this rally.

Normand said...


This is really shameless.

Discrediting another professional to promote your own blog.

That's kind of desperate.

joed said...

Mr. Kahn, although none of us get it right all the time, You are pretty darn good at what you do, I've been reading your stuff for years. I would fade his eloquent utterances, isn't he an M.D. Anyway?
Have a nice Summer!