Monday, June 21, 2010

More the more things change

I had a quickie email discussion with a colleague who was worried that we are seeing February redux and needed to be more bullish in his portfolio. His note to me was written at 1pm when the Dow was still up 70 points.

Today's trading was a colossal failure with reversals at 50-day averages all over the place.  Unless we get about a 10% rally tomorrow, the NYSE composite will get its death cross.

In February, the VIX was rising. This month, the VIX was falling.
In February, the dollar confirmed a breakout. Today, the dollar scored a massive bullish reversal at support to end a correction.

If the head/shoulders pattern was real, this might have been the right shoulder's peak but I won't get that micro.

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