Monday, September 13, 2010

Bond Bubble Bogasity

Bogasity (bogacity)
Something that is making me unhappy. Something that has an element of ridiculousness. Something that is totally false and untrue.

I've written that bonds were indeed in nosebleed territory but that this was no bubble. First of all, if we think it is a bubble it is not.

Bubbles are not just chart patterns. They are states of mind. Measuring tech stocks on advertising dollars per share or RnD per share as they did in 1999-2000 is a bubble because everyone thought it was the only way to go.

Ditto setting Joe the Plumber up with a 500K jumbo loan with no money down for 110% financing.

I think we may have seen the peak in prices (see today's column) but that we are going to stay in the area for a while. Bonds are still a lousy investment but they are better then stocks IMHO.

Check out how actively bonds of every maturity bounced off supports (again, see the column). And to the right you will see a Facebook post saying how shorter-term interest rates tanked. Down nearly 5% (vs. Friday's yield) on the 5-year and down 7% on the 2-year.

If you think that means the market thinks the economy is roaring back you've got another thing coming (which really means you've got another think coming - as in try again, ladies and gents).

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