Friday, September 30, 2011

Good riddance!

September is about to move into the history books and barring a monster rally it will be a loser. This is a good thing for those of us who like cycles because the past two Septembers were winners - going against the grain of seasonal analysis.

September is the only month of the year - on average - that loses money over time. If it did not revert back to this tendency in 2011 - in other words violate it for three years in a row - we'd have to give it a serious re-think.

All cycles are merely tendencies but there is value in them. The same can be said of all analysese as there is never a guarantee that a head-and-shoulders breakdown will lead to a new declining trend. The odds say it will but the odds are never 100%.  Our job is to assess how good the odds are for any given trade and make the decision to buy, sell or hold.

We use ambiguity to take a discreet action - what a concept!

And what to the odds say now? Bear market. Just don't be blind to the facts should they change for the better.

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