Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The dollar and other markets

So much for the greenback bounce. This is still a good trade in my view but no market is letting us play very easily. Stock leaders crashed - for about two days before moving on to new highs. Same for oil. Can gold be far behind?

At least the bond market is behaving itself and continuing in its breakdown. And as I wrote in Barron's Online, so too are utilities wobbling.

We would expect commodities to go up on a day like this and indeed they did. Crude is a rocket but I bet my Elliott Wave friends might say it is in a 5 of 5 now so don't get in too deep. Let the Goldman predict 200 bucks. That seems a tad too high now (I was a 115 proponent back in February).

My message today is expect major fakes in markets that have not done so yet. Based on sector leadership and intermarket stuff, nothing is different now than it was last month - except that many markets could be in terminal waves. Enjoy them while they last.

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