Monday, May 19, 2008

Spank the Leaders

While Internet software is still OK as I wrote about in today's column, the real market leaders this month are getting taken out back and shot. How does a 5% haircut in Potash Corp sound? Same for DryShips? And my poor LDK Solar, recommended to customers just this morning, has backed off its huge gains (15%) to be up only 6%. Can you at least last until I can cash it in?

This morning it was "what me worry?" when it came to the economy but of course there was a headline saying that a gaggle of economists agree that a recession is either here or coming. I think the momentum players got clocked today as all the technical problems I've been writing about seem to matter now. Leadership was the only thing going for the market without any qualifiers.

The market may push all the evidence to the back burner and mess up as many of us as possible. It also may do it for longer than we can fight it, reminding me of my usual Barry Goldwater quote. "I'd rather be right than President."

I'd rather live to trade another day than be right while I fight the trend. But if it is turning I am going to be very ready.


Doug said...

I think your right on Mike with being bearish. You surprised me a bit with your bullish stance on the internet software stocks, not that they don't have some positive charts technically, but I think during the time you wrote that you may have forgotten that we are in a bear market...hey, keep up the great work, I really appreciate your analysis, I think it's dead on accurate my friend.

Michael Kahn said...


I have never taken off my bear market rally hat.

Let me let everyone in on a little secret, as if you did not already know it. As with professors, it's publish or perish. Or put another way, no article, story or column, no paycheck.

This is what leads reporters to "explain" why the market did this or that on a given day. And that leads to stories that "stocks shrug off high oil" followed the next day by "high oil hits blue chips." Clearly, it is a load of {not nice word}.

I stand by my analysis that 'net software looks better than the market and would never publish anything I felt was misleading. Ethics forbid it. But if I had my druthers I would have not written anything at all. Relative outperformance in a bad market can - not must - lead to losses.

Doug said...

I hear what your saying, the general public wants to be long so your gonna give them something that has the best chance of not crashing. I hold you in extremely high regard and want the truth, just as you see it. I'm very selective about who I listen to concerning Bible teaching, politics, and lastly the stock market...
thanks again, your friend doug