Monday, July 21, 2008

Yowza! Did I say that?

Anyone seeing the headline of today's Barron's Online column without reading the fine print is going to want to do an Obama on me, Jesse Jackson style. Leave it to the editors to make a headline that grabs your attention!

Yes, I did say that I thought the financials have bottomed but more importantly I never said it was time to buy them! Big difference!. American Express earnings reaction is proof. But after another big earnings decline, or should I say shellacking, that beat analyst doom and gloom projections, Bank of America was the latest "we didn't die!" rally machine. Something is very different in the sector.

But it is time for a correction and even BAC closed near its worst levels of the main trading session.

Another point - I also said the sector was forming a base and that means a trip down to old lows is entirely possible and I might add likely. But watch as it happens. Betcha volume, sentiment, momentum and every other technical metric sets a higher low. That's probably when I say it is safe to get back in.

And what if the technicals fall apart again? Well, that's the breaks. Nobody puts Baby in a corner.


Anonymous said...

Michael, you were right about the call, no need to rectify ... However, I don't think it's the improved sentiment or fatique over financials that has stopped the market from falling further. I have no doubt whatsoever that it's been the PPT in action, shooting from all their guns. The market has learned to react when they come out - and they come out - interestingly - everytime the market is on the verge of a serious technical breakdown. But one needs to keep in mind that propheting bottoms in financials has been a fool's game so far and the PPT is running out of options. In regard to finacials, I recommend listening to Meredith Whitney, who seems to be one of the few unbiased and knowledgable analysts with a foresight

Anonymous said...

"Believe Nothing" I have been advised. Sounds right for your bottom call. There is much more Financial pain to unfold.