Wednesday, November 19, 2008

How to Spot a Bottom

I wrote an article for a magazine in August that was never published covering sector rotation at the bottom. It clearly did not anticipate the slow motion market crash that followed but some of the concepts in there might still be useful to investors.

Click here to read it. Again, a lot has changed - specifically a turn for the worse in the financial sector - so please bring your grain of salt and leave your tomatoes (for hurling at me) at home.


Doug said...

this market sure is all giddy over the new president and his "ideas"

patrick neid said...

Combine it all with your April 16 Barron's column and we are almost there!

With a little luck over the next few days we will find out if the 1974 overlay still plays.

Michael Kahn said...

For those interested, Patrick is referring to my column entitled "Timing the Bottom," which covered cycles in major asset classes. The conclusion, or at least observation, was that stocks should bottom in November. Boy if only!

Just for some more cycle stuff - the 9-month bottomed in October and the seasonal upswing starts this month. Cycles don't pinpoint anything. They just give us frames of reference.