Wednesday, April 8, 2009

The Agony of Repeat

Yes, this was the original title for today's column before the editors got to it.

It was a very tough column to write, not because of the analysis or the market but because I find myself writing the same things all week. Having my 6-year old get up at 4:30 when my teenagers went to bed late the night before did not help. But the public demands short-term timing......

Here's the bottom line - April will be a rough month. Check out my MarketWatch article from April 1 where I make that case - Goldilocks Meets the Bears.

Play it as you see fit. You can try to squeeze that last drop out of the rally or cash it in now. I won't even suggest what to do in a free blog. But I can say that I do not subscribe to the idea that the market will continue to rally into a 50% gain that some fledgling bull markets give out when the zoom higher from deeply oversold conditions of the bear. We are not at the bull market yet.

To all celebrating holidays this week, may they be safe and meaningful. I will be writing the newsletter Thursday but will likely not blog again until Sunday.


Unknown said...

Hey Michael,

I read your "Marketwatch" piece, and I agree with you, though I think a bit higer is reachable. I think 950 SP, and though I am commenting after the close on Thursday, which you did not have the benefit of, financials confirmed the move in the indices today.

I've been too busy to read your comments the past few weeks, but you were essentially correct in your early bullishness.

As for targets, I work with a guy, a former floor broker for Raymond James at the PSE, who's motto is, "prepare; don't predict". Whether it reaches your target or mine, I will be looking for signs of a negative divergence.

Oddly enough, if a sell off ensues and holds the '666' area, I think the "Bear" may go into hibernation !!

Michael Kahn said...

The market will reach higher or turn down faster than anyone will ever expect. I think I'll stay clear and not be a hero. Then, when the inevitable happens, there will be plenty of cash to buy inverse ETFs