Sunday, August 21, 2011

Down Home Country Thinkin'

On the way back from a long weekend with the family (Hershey Park - man, the chocolate so much better less than a mile from the factory) we looked for a place to have some dinner. We are used to rest stops on the Interstate where we can fill up the car and fill up the bellies, albeit the latter with gourmet sensibilities suspended. But on I-78 in both NJ and PA, forget it. We had to rely on exit signs showing us food and fuel with both brand and local names. Hmmm, Pizza Hut or Marge's restaurant?

There was a sign for Cracker Barrel and I said, "let's try it?"  Believe me, taking a suburban NY family with a child, two teens and a wife who is not exactly an Andrew Zimmern fan to this type of place required me, as the driver and, deludedly in my mind, the head of the household, to make an executive decision.

I've had no experience with this brand except to imagine chicken fried steak, biscuits and ham hocks, whatever that is. Admittedly, I mixed this up with Hickory Farms and their nut covered cheese logs sold in malls. But after verifying that we could get a simple plain grilled chicken we stopped in.

I won't bore you with the details of the meal but the food was comfort food at its best (I had beef stew for the first time in 20 years).

How does this this fit on a markets blog? It confirmed that we have to try new things even if they are uncomfortable.

What's new in the stock market? How about thinking some stocks are actually cheap? I don't mean "if you liked them at 80 you'll love them at 60 cheap (thank you Wall Street analysts). I mean cheap now based on a model that said they were expensive a month ago.

Talk about a tough road for the psyche, especially since I think this is a bear market that is far from over!

But let's talk cheap as is the company is still making money and is no longer ridiculously priced. Or, from my side of the world, the charts look compelling in the long-term.

Here's the part that makes this difficult - prices may still get softer, even for companies that are going to be just fine. Do you buy some now to get a toe in and if they go up buy more? Or do you buy some now and if they go down you average it with more shares at the lower price?

I'm not going to talk specific stocks or actions here. My point is to shake you from a singular mindset so you do not miss any signs the market may give you that perhaps it is time to play the long side, at least for a little while. And this is coming from an all out bear.

1 comment:

Blogger said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.