Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Tease Me Baby

Fire and Ice
You come on like a flame
Then you turn a cold shoulder
Fire and Ice
I wanna give you my love
But you'll just take a little piece of my heart
---Pat Benatar, Fire and Ice (1984)

I remarked in Quick Takes Pro over the past week that the news was a predictable as the sun rising in the east every morning. Thursday, it was good new from China, the ECB and BOE. Friday it was bad news from the US with a lousy jobs report. Monday it was a German taxpayer revolt (sort of) killing the stock market. Tuesday, true to form, whopee! They are bailing out the Spanish banks.

Didn't they do that already? The market thought so and teased the bulls with an early 80-point Dow rally that evaporated. Then sat there - teasing, teasing. Until the bottom dropped out.

Fire and ice.

I have a feeling that we are going to see nothing until the election but chop, chop, chop unless one of three things happens:

1 - it becomes apparent that one side or the other will will the Presidency (stocks tank or soar)
2 - Europe implodes for real (beats me what happens)
3 - Central banks wake up and get the heck out of the way (stocks tank)

And you can take that to the bank. Invest it in LIBOR. I mean beer.


Amalan said...

funny post. The only part I don't agree with is that you seem to think the stocks will rise or sink depending on election results. I think it doesn't matter who wins, the markets will rise first into next year, and start falling after 1Q.. no matter who wins, we are going to see companies going into earnings recession next year...

By the way, I have a technical question. If you look at the Chevron stock price chart, would you call it a flag (a large flag!), with the $110 level forming the top of the flag since July of 2011. I wonder if it means anything..

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