Friday, October 19, 2012

Happy 25th Aniiversary!

Here are some musings from this morning's Quick Takes Pro newsletter (subtle hint - take a free trial).

It is hard to believe it was 25 years ago today that the Crash of '87 sent the financial world into panic. Funny how there is always something out there to accomplish that same feat whether it be a tech bubble, housing bubble, debt bubble, tulip bubble or simple exuberance bubble that happened some eight years before Alan Greenspan made it irrational.

I was a green technical analyst; actually not yet an analyst at all since I had just started working with a financial information vendor only weeks earlier. I was also a kid who spent most of his young career peddling municipal bonds at Merrill Lynch. The novel "Bonfire of the Vanities" was also released that year and while I was not drinking magnums of Dom at Delmonico's, I was close to the whole 1980's style excess described in the book. I even held a check in my hand - for about 30 seconds - made out to a New York State municipal agency for $225 million after we underwrote a muni bond offering.

The crash rendered analysis of all kinds almost useless but after the volatility calmed down and the Earth actually kept spinning on its axis, analysis returned. I sort of feel the same way today as it seems that with QE out of the way the free market is trying to regain its power. Charts still need to be treated with salted kid gloves but we believe they are starting to regain our trust.

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