Monday, August 3, 2009

Broke(Green)Back Mountain

That was sort of the working title for today's column. I am glad the editor came up with something better, even if more boring.

The dollar is looking might sickly, isn't it? If the European banks are in better shape than everyone thought (witness HSBC and Barclay's earnings not showing the Grim Reaper on the Board of Directors) and four more US banks failed last Friday then perhaps there is reason why capital is fleeing this country.

We all thought that global stimulus packages would inflate all economies and therefore, since all forex pairs are, well, pairs it suggests that inflation and currency shifts should all cancel out. But one look at the greenback and ugh!

I am harking back to last year when I blogged about being mistreated during a radio interview when I talked about the weak dollar. (this is the link). I am sure that host was twirling his pointy mustache (actually, he does not have one but I am thinking of Snidely Whiplash) when the dollar rallied hard to the high 80s. But now, I have a warm bowl of crow for him to chow.

Last year's financial crisis caused a stampede to the dollar and the perceived safety of the USA. Now that risk appetites are back, the flight to safety is over and so is the temporary vacation in bull-land.

Are you listening Washington? A falling dollar can help exporters for only so long.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

My Favorite Talking Head

My favorite market maven on financial TV is Charles Payne. When I first saw him on the weekend Fox business block a few years ago I wondered how this kid was getting so much face time, especially since I had never heard of him before. Fast forward to the Fox Business Channel and I have become a big fan.

He knows his stuff. He tells it like it is. He has a level head and cool temperment. He is not too full of himself. He does not take sides although the capitalist in him does shine through. However, he does not force it down the viewer's throat.

Charles, if you are reading this, I invite you to address the Market Technician's Association seminars some time. If anything, it will get the knuckleheads in our profession to learn how to speak English and stop shooting themselves in the foot every time they open their mouths.

Hmmm, sounds like a certain guy in Washington.

You know my favorites, such as "if the market clears XXX then it has a good chance of possibly running 5 to 10 percent higher, otherwise, if it can't hold this level it might go down. Tell me you have not read this kind of commentary before. No wonder analysts get flamed in chat rooms.

In a future blog post, I'll list some more of my favorite non-information comments I have heard or read. Some of them are a hoot! And people still pay to read them. Unreal.