Yes, this chart shows a lower low in 2016 than we may see in 2012. But it is not as low as the one in 2009 and it sure does follow the road map of the 1970s (the previous secular bear).
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Full decade forecast
This is the chart subscribers saw a few weeks ago and Barron's Online readers saw, albeit with some of the markings removed, in today's column.
I do believe that there is an 18 or so year cycle of secular bull and secular bear markets. The current secular bear started at the 2000 peak. This chart shows where most of the cyclical bull and bears fall within.
Yes, this chart shows a lower low in 2016 than we may see in 2012. But it is not as low as the one in 2009 and it sure does follow the road map of the 1970s (the previous secular bear).
Yes, this chart shows a lower low in 2016 than we may see in 2012. But it is not as low as the one in 2009 and it sure does follow the road map of the 1970s (the previous secular bear).
Friday, December 23, 2011
The Year That Really Wasn't
Oh there was plenty of action but if you look at where the stock market was at the end of last year even your saving account interest might have beaten it.
Oh, it looks like a rally this month but the current price is pretty much where it was at the end of November.
And November, which came in like toxic waste and left on a Justin Bieber high - guess what? Just about the same price as when October ended.
Remember that monster October rally? Well it left things where they were in when we last serenaded jolly old St Nick.
So, for the August "crash" and the Japanese tsunami dip and the pre-Halloween "the financial system did not collapse" melt-up 2011 looks to be leaving us where it found us.
A Happy and Merry to all! I am not sure if I'll have anything to post here on the blog during the final week of the year so keep tabs on the Facebook page. And if you want to give me a little end of year gift, how about "liking" it? It's just a little click over there on the right side of this very page.
Oh, it looks like a rally this month but the current price is pretty much where it was at the end of November.
And November, which came in like toxic waste and left on a Justin Bieber high - guess what? Just about the same price as when October ended.
Remember that monster October rally? Well it left things where they were in when we last serenaded jolly old St Nick.
So, for the August "crash" and the Japanese tsunami dip and the pre-Halloween "the financial system did not collapse" melt-up 2011 looks to be leaving us where it found us.
A Happy and Merry to all! I am not sure if I'll have anything to post here on the blog during the final week of the year so keep tabs on the Facebook page. And if you want to give me a little end of year gift, how about "liking" it? It's just a little click over there on the right side of this very page.
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