Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Value from CNBC

It is a national pastime of traders to make fun of CNBC and I won't argue on most of it. But I have always thought that there are some smart people there and perhaps it is the mandate to provide a constant stream of advertising selling content that marginalizes them.

Anyway, this morning, they put up an Intrade chart of Obama Reelection futures. It showed a steady decline this year with an Osama bump and even a little strength this month.  Here is that chart - followed by a chart of the S&P 500.
Do you see any similarities?  Forget the news. What we see here is the same shape in Obama's prospects as we see in the stock market - only lagged by perhaps two weeks.

Forget unemployment. If the stock market tanks before the election you can welcome President Newt or President Mitt or President The Donald.  Well, maybe not that last one.


1leone said...

It continues to baffle me, how people consistently see analogues &/or correlations in everything….

Michael Kahn said...

1leone, you should really visit I agree there are a lot of spurious correlations out there but the stock market and social mood is a proven entity.